Malaria Poses Growing Threat to Africa as Climate Change Drives Deaths, Study Warns
Climate Change Could Cause 500,000 Additional Malaria Deaths by 2050
Climate change could lead to more than 500,000 additional malaria deaths in Africa by 2050 and trigger over 100 million new malaria cases if strong prevention measures are not taken, according to a new study published in Nature.
The research, led by teams from Australia’s Children’s Research Institute and Curtin University, uses one of the most advanced malaria prediction models to date. It examines a medium climate pathway, where global emissions continue to rise without major reductions, sharply increasing malaria risk across Africa.
Children and vulnerable populations are expected to face the greatest danger as climate conditions worsen in the coming decades.
Extreme Weather, Not Gradual Warming, Drives the Biggest Risk
While earlier studies focused mainly on how rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns expand the reach of malaria-carrying Anopheles mosquitoes, this research points to a different and more dangerous factor: extreme weather events.
Floods and cyclones linked to climate change in Africa are responsible for an estimated 79% of new malaria cases and up to 93% of additional malaria-related deaths expected over the next 25 years. These disasters overwhelm health systems, destroy homes, and disrupt access to life-saving malaria treatment.
Malaria transmission already exists across much of Africa, but cases remain relatively low in many areas thanks to malaria prevention tools such as insecticide-treated bed nets, improved housing, and wider access to malaria testing and medication.
However, climate shocks can rapidly undo years of progress. Flooding damages homes and bed nets, cyclones destroy clinics and supply routes, and delays in medical care leave patients at far greater risk. The health impacts can persist for months or even years after a single climate-driven disaster.
Lead author Tazmin Simmons of the Malaria Atlas Project said previous research underestimated the threat by focusing too narrowly on mosquitoes and parasites. She noted that the collapse of health services during climate disasters is now the most critical factor driving increased malaria deaths.
The study urges governments and health agencies to adopt climate-resilient malaria control strategies. These include strengthening emergency preparedness, rapidly restoring health clinics after disasters, and developing malaria prevention tools that can withstand extreme weather.
Jonathan Karapetis, director of Australia’s Children’s Research Institute, said the findings provide clear guidance for policymakers. With targeted action, he said, millions of at-risk children and families in Africa could be protected from a growing and preventable public health threat.
