Russian military A-50 surveillance plane shot down by Ukraine over the Sea of Azov

Russia's Defense Ministry has yet to respond to the Ukrainian military's claim that they shot down a Russian A-50 surveillance plane and damaged an Il-22M bomber over the Sea of Azov.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated that he has no information regarding the incident and directed inquiries to the Defense Ministry. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's top general, and Mykola Oleshchuk, the head of the Ukrainian Air Force, have both asserted that the Russian aircraft were indeed hit. If these claims are substantiated by other sources, it would mark the first time that the Ukrainian military has successfully downed an A-50 plane. These early warning and control aircraft, which were developed in the late 1970s based on the Il-76 transport plane, are easily identifiable due to their distinctive rotating radar dome. NATO refers to similar systems as Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS). While Ukraine has managed to target Il-76 aircraft, both in the air and on the ground, since Russia's invasion began in February 2022, they have not previously been able to shoot down an A-50. 

Typically, these planes operate several hundred kilometers away from conflict zones and are primarily utilized for deep reconnaissance and providing support in targeting objectives, particularly in the air. Reports suggest that the Russian military possesses around a dozen such aircraft, with the A-50U, a modernized version, being in service since 2011. The most recent variant was delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces in September 2023. In February 2023, a drone damaged an A-50 plane that was stationed at an airbase in Belarus.

In June, several months later, an Il-22M plane, serving as an airborne command center, was downed in the Voronezh region of Russia by the Wagner Group, a private paramilitary organization, during their mutiny.

Patriot air defense systems could be involved

The method of attack on the A-50 and Il-22 by the Ukrainian military has not been disclosed. However, Valeriy Romanenko from the National Aviation University suggested that Patriot air defense systems might have been employed. He explained that since the targets were reportedly struck over the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine, only Patriot missiles would have the required operational range of 160 kilometers (99 miles).

Consequently, this implies that the Ukrainian military has deployed expensive and powerful Patriot systems in close proximity to the front line. Ukraine possesses several such systems, including some acquired from Germany. Previously, these systems were believed to be solely utilized for safeguarding major cities against Russian attacks. However, Ukraine claims that they are currently being utilized to intercept modern Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.

Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, expressed his concerns about the risky nature of bringing Patriot systems so close to the front. He cited an incident in May where multiple Russian fighter jets and helicopters were destroyed in the Bryansk region on the Ukrainian border.

Last month, Ukraine announced that it had successfully downed three Russian fighter-bombers on the southern front. The specific weapons employed by the military remain unknown, but many observers speculate that the Patriot systems were utilized.

Austrian military historian Colonel Markus Reisner, in an interview with DW, suggested that the A-50 may have been targeted not only by Patriots but also by another system, both from the ground and the air. He even raised the possibility of multiple systems being employed.

Experts analysis of the Ukrainian attack over the Sea of Azov

In relation to the Ukrainian attack over the Sea of Azov, experts anticipate a number of consequences. Reisner notes that Russia cannot ignore the situation until it has been clarified.

On the other hand, Romanenko predicts that the Russian military will withdraw its reconnaissance aircraft to approximately 100 kilometers away from the front. He believes that this move would provide Kyiv with tactical advantages in certain areas, enabling the Ukrainian military to launch attacks on Crimea and other Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.

Furthermore, Romanenko suggests that this could create more favorable conditions for the deployment of Ukrainian fighter aircraft, both for supporting ground operations and for utilizing Western cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow. 

Reisner stated that the downing of an A-50 would signify a noteworthy accomplishment for Ukraine, both on the military front and in terms of media representation. Drawing parallels to the Ukrainian offensive against a Russian submarine in Crimea the previous year, he elaborated on how Ukraine had once again showcased its ability to utilize its limited resources to great effect. According to Reisner, this display of competence was crucial in maintaining ongoing support from Western nations.